Key Takeaways:
- Adobe expects online holiday spending to reach a new high this season.
- Black Friday is set to grow faster than Cyber Monday, even as Cyber Monday stays the biggest day.
- Shoppers are expected to use holiday deals to stock up on everyday essentials.
Adobe Inc. expects U.S. consumers to spend a record $275.1 billion online this holiday season, up 6.7% year over year, according to an Adobe press release issued Monday. The forecast covers Nov. 1 through Dec. 31, 2026.
The projection draws on Adobe Analytics data from more than 1 trillion visits to U.S. retail sites, 100 million SKUs and 18 product categories.
Cyber Week, the five-day period between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday, is expected to drive $47.5 billion in online sales, up 7.4%. That represents 17.3% of total season spending.
Electronics ($63.3 billion, up 5.9%) and apparel ($51.3 billion, up 4.7%) are expected to remain the largest categories. Adobe expects stronger growth in grocery ($26.1 billion, up 10.3%), toys ($9.6 billion, up 9.6%), cosmetics ($9.2 billion, up 9.5%) and furniture ($33.4 billion, up 7.3%).
Separate research suggests gift budgets will stay close to last year’s levels. As our sister publication Retail TouchPoints reported earlier this month, PwC’s Holiday Outlook 2026 found that average gift spending is expected to dip 2% to $708, down from $721 last year. PwC’s findings, based on a June survey of 4,093 U.S. consumers, came as the University of Michigan’s consumer confidence index fell 18.5% year over year over the same period.
“People are protecting the parts of the holidays that matter most: the gifts, the family dinner, the traditions,” said Ali Furman, PwC Partner and U.S. Consumer Markets Industry Leader, in an interview with Retail TouchPoints. “They’re finding other places to save. The vibe says cutback. The cart says otherwise.”
Black Friday Growth to Outpace Cyber Monday
Cyber Monday, falling on Nov. 30, is projected to generate $15.1 billion, up 6.2%, keeping its spot as the season’s biggest online shopping day. Black Friday is expected to bring in $12.9 billion, up 9.2%. Adobe attributes Black Friday’s faster growth in part to having the season’s biggest discounts for categories such as TVs, apparel and appliances.
Thanksgiving is forecast at $6.9 billion, up 8.5%, boosted by impulse shopping. A record 63% of Thanksgiving online spending is expected to come through mobile devices, up from 61.6% in 2025. Across the full season, mobile should account for 57.4% of spending, compared with 56.4% last year.
October Spending to Accelerate
Adobe expects $95.8 billion in online spending in October, up 8%. The Prime Day event on Oct. 6 and 7 is projected to drive $9.9 billion, up 9.2%, with discounts peaking at 19% off listed price.
The October event has become an industrywide e-commerce moment, with discounts happening broadly across U.S. retailers, according to Adobe. The company said the event has changed the shape of the holiday season, pushing retailers to manage promotions and inventory to capture an additional pre-season spike in shopping interest.
Discounts to Hold Steady as Shoppers Stock Up
Discounts are expected to peak at 30% off listed price during Cyber Week. Shoppers will see deals of up to 14% in early November, up to 21% just before Thanksgiving and up to 10% to 15% throughout December.
Category discounts are expected to be on par with 2025. Electronics discounts are expected to peak at 30% (vs. 30.1% last year), toys at 29% (vs. 28%) and TVs, computers and apparel at 23% each. Sporting goods discounts are set to reach 19%, with the best sporting goods deals landing on Thanksgiving.
Many shoppers are expected to use discounts to buy essentials. Compared with average September 2026 sales levels, Cyber Week online sales of clothing basics are projected to jump 210% and personal hygiene products 150%. Baby products (up 113%), pet products (up 93%) and household cleaning items (up 49%) are also set to rise.
Buy Now, Pay Later to Top $21 Billion
Buy now, pay later (BNPL) is expected to drive $21.3 billion in November and December spending, up 6.6%. BNPL should account for $1.09 billion on Cyber Monday, the second consecutive year topping $1 billion that day, and $807 million on Black Friday. Mobile devices are expected to carry 82% of BNPL spending.
AI Traffic and Social Channels to Gain Ground
AI traffic to U.S. retail sites, measured by shoppers clicking a link, is projected to rise 130% year over year. The biggest jump is expected on Thanksgiving (up 159%), followed by Black Friday (up 95%) and Cyber Monday (up 88%).
In a July 2026 Adobe survey of 5,000 consumers, 77% of respondents who have used AI for online shopping said they feel more confident in their purchase, and 69% said they are less likely to return an item they bought.
In PwC’s holiday research, 29% of consumers said they plan to use AI somewhere in their shopping journey this year, up from 22% last year. Among those users, 75% turn to AI to research products and 55% use it to compare prices.
“AI is the new coupon-clipping,” Furman said.
Most AI users still open a separate website or app to complete the purchase, according to the report.
Affiliates and partners, a category that includes social influencers, are expected to see a 12% gain in share of revenue, while social media overall is set to rise 17%. Paid search is projected to rise 4%. Within affiliates, cashback and rewards partners lead with a 36% share of traffic, followed by influencers and creators at 22%.
