One of my earliest backcountry trips taught me that in the outdoors, it’s the subtle signs that matter most. I had just graduated from my “backpacking in jeans” phase when I joined a 10-day trek in Wyoming’s Absaroka Range – and saw that lesson in action.
The Absarokas are the Rockies’ most extensive range, composed largely of volcanic rock. This geology means the range erodes quickly, creating steep valleys that climb to high ridges. It’s a place where cell service is nonexistent, and even satellite connections can be unreliable. In addition, the ridges create long stretches of hiking in valleys with no clear view of the sky, making it tough to see weather coming.
I’d been there before – my earliest trips were memorable mainly for how often I got caught in sudden rain or snowstorms, poorly dressed and unprepared. But this time, I went with a more experienced group. One member kindly coached me on proper trail gear, and another brought a barometer that she monitored religiously.
It felt like magic. Even in deep timber or narrow valleys, her barometer warned of what we couldn’t see. When the pressure dropped, she told us to stop early and set up camp – warnings I might’ve missed with only my eyes on the sky. Rising pressure? A green light to push on late into the evening to cross a high pass. The barometer showed us what the sky couldn’t.
Lately, I’ve been thinking about that trip and how the same idea applies to the outdoor industry as we look ahead to 2025. Like the Absarokas, the signals are out there, but they’re not always obvious – or easy to interpret.
It’s not that we can’t see what’s coming; the sky isn’t hidden. The problem is that there are so many signals it can be overwhelming to figure out which ones matter most. So today, let’s take a closer look at some of those subtle changes in pressure that are probably important to pay attention to – and what they might mean for the trail ahead in 2025.
Four Signs of Rising Pressure and Sunny Days Ahead
1. Inventories Are Finally Coming Under Control
It seems like the inventory tide is turning for both manufacturers and retailers. For the past couple of years, hearing that brands were “well-positioned” on inventory felt like optimistic PR spin. But now, there’s a noticeable shift. Conversations with brand leaders about 2025 have a different tone – less spin, more reality. The Grassroots Outdoor Alliance recently surveyed retailers, and very few reported trouble overall finding inventory in 2024. That’s likely to change next year, and reasonable shortages are a good thing – they translate to higher margins by year-end.
The clearest signal that inventories are tightening is discount chain Sierra reportedly pushing many brands for SMU (special makeup) products for 2025. Two years ago, they were able to take their pick of available closeout lists at exceptional terms. If the current “smartest people in the room” don’t think there will be enough closeout products available to fill their shelves, that’s excellent news. Running out of great inventory is actually a win in the long run.
2. Rightsizing the Retail Landscape
The industry is finally adjusting after 2022’s explosion of overproduction and over-expansion. Retail doors are closing, and even REI has pumped the brakes. Remember when the co-op announced they’d hit 400 stores by the end of the decade? That meant opening about 30 new doors a year. Fast-forward to this year, and their plans for 2025 include just four new stores and two relocations.
Interestingly, most of the closures we’re seeing are happening in chains. Specialty stores, while smaller, are holding their ground. Less competition and a slowdown in new retail doors are healthy for the market right now. It’s time to regroup and stabilize.
3. A Warming Brand-Retailer Relationship
Something has shifted in how retailers and manufacturers are talking to each other. Sure, there are still frustrations, but the tone feels more collaborative this fall. Three years ago, brands and retailers were convinced they could succeed independently. That illusion has faded. This season, we seem to be collectively remembering that we need each other. Stronger partnerships increase the odds of success for everyone involved.
4. Private Equity Has (Mostly) Moved On
It feels like the days of private equity throwing huge piles of cash at outdoor brands to fuel massive online growth are behind us. Even Vuori’s recent funding round has a different vibe – less about blitz-scaling at all costs, more about getting a piece of a profitable company. Without the chaos that profit-blind PE dollars created – driving unrealistic growth goals and forcing everyone else to compete on the same unsustainable playing field – there’s a glimmer of hope. With those pressures easing, brands have a chance to adopt more rational, profit-focused strategies. That’s not just good news for the brands themselves; it’s good news for the entire industry. A financially sustainable path benefits everyone, from retailers to manufacturers to the planet.
Three Signs of Falling Pressure and Storms Approaching
1. Trade Policy Uncertainty
Want to give an industry leader a huge scare? Sneak up behind them and whisper, “Taaaarrrriiiifffssss…” in the creepy phone voice from the movie “The Ring.” Trade policy remains a wild card. If the incoming administration follows through on its suggestions, production won’t shift fast enough to avoid disruptions. And even if the outdoor industry successfully moves production, inflationary pressures could still wipe out discretionary income for most Americans next year.
Right now, contingency planning seems scarce. My observation is that many leaders are holding their breath, waiting to see how things unfold. That lack of preparation could lead to serious headaches if things turn south quickly.
2. Discounting Is Stickier Than Ever
Have you noticed the pop-ups on brand websites lately? Where they used to offer 10% off for signing up for the mailing list, now it’s 20%. Influencers on TikTok are practically offended if discounts dip below 40%. And Sierra – our largest and most successful outdoor chain – is built on selling off-price goods.
Over the last two years, we’ve trained outdoor consumers to wait for a discount, and they’ve learned the lesson well. Executives admit that cutting back on discounts has been nearly impossible. We’ve collectively devalued much of what we sell, and clawing back that perceived value is going to take time, if it’s even possible.
3. Dick’s Sporting Goods Is Winning, and It’s Not by Selling Outdoor Gear
DSG’s recent earnings call revealed what many of us already suspected: they’re thriving, but not because of traditional outdoor products. Their success is tied to a sleeker, more athletic aesthetic, and the hottest brands in their lineup – On and Hoka – are only loosely connected to the traditional idea of “outdoor.”
Meanwhile, the outdoor industry is struggling. “Gorpcore” has officially been declared dead, and no one in our space has matched Dick’s success this year. Sport is selling, outdoor is not – and that’s a trend we can’t ignore.
So, What’s the Industry Weather?
Honestly, it’s hard to say. The signals are mixed, and while trade policy feels like it’s being written live on X/Twitter and Truth Social, there are enough positive indicators to feel cautiously optimistic about 2025 – if we’re willing to adapt. It won’t be all clear skies, but I see reasons to believe that those prepared to navigate the shifting pressures will find success.
Why am I optimistic? Because there’s a growing shift toward sustainable strategies, stronger collaborations, and a healthier balance between production and demand. That’s progress worth paying attention to.
Still, I’ve learned enough in the Absarokas to keep an eye on the barometer. The jeans I’m wearing today feel like a good choice, but I’ve packed my rain pants. Just in case.
Because if the trade policy thing doesn’t get figured out, it’s going to pour.
Wes Allen, principal at Sunlight Sports, started working the floor in a small outdoor shop in the ‘90s. Since then, he has worked for the world’s largest outdoor retailer, managed a brand, led the industry’s leading specialty retailer organization, and owned an independent retailer in Wyoming with his wife, Melissa.
