Key Takeaways:
- Independent retail posted the lowest Optimism Index of all industries tracked in Q1 2026, scoring 94.1 and falling below the all-firms baseline.
- Only 4% of independent retailers said it is currently a good time to expand, the lowest reading of any industry and down 3 points from January.
- Retail hiring plans were the weakest of all industries, with a net 9% planning to add staff in the next three months.
Independent retailers are the most pessimistic business segment in the country, according to the latest quarterly survey from the National Federation of Independent Business, released this week.
The NFIB Research Center’s Q1 2026 industry-specific Small Business Economic Trends report found that the Optimism Index fell across all four tracked industries — construction, manufacturing, retail, and services — from the prior quarter. Independent retail posted the steepest pessimism, with an index reading of 94.1, the only industry to land below the overall all-firms baseline.
Independent Retail Is the Only Industry to Fall Below the National Baseline
Only a seasonally adjusted 4% of independent retailers said it is currently a good time to expand their business, down 3 points from January and the lowest reading of any industry in the survey.
Independent retail also posted the lowest hiring plans of all industries, with a net 9% of retailers planning to add staff in the next three months, running 4 points below the all-firms reading.
With Just 4% of Retailers Bullish on Growth, Confidence Hits a Floor
According to NFIB Research Center Executive Director Holly Wade, overall optimism declined across all reported industries, though more than half of Main Street owners still rated their business health as excellent or good.
Supply chain disruptions were reported by 64% of small business owners surveyed in April, up 2 points from January.
The full NFIB report is available at nfib.com.
