More than half of holiday shoppers (56%) say the state of the economy will affect their holiday spending plans this year, according to the National Retail Federation’s annual consumer survey conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics. Among those consumers, 43% plan to shop for sales more often, 31% will comparison shop online more often and 29% will use coupons more often, among other strategies to make the season more affordable.
“With affordability top of mind, holiday shoppers are taking a thoughtful approach to spending, balancing value with preserving traditions that make the holiday season special,” NRF Vice President of Industry and Consumer Insights Allison Zeller said. “Retailers understand consumer budget priorities and are responding with compelling products, promotions and shopping experiences that make it easier to find value while still capturing the holiday excitement.”
Consistent with recent years, nearly all U.S. adults (91%) plan to celebrate winter holidays including Christmas, Hanukkah or Kwanzaa.
Forty-three percent of holiday shoppers plan to begin browsing and buying for the holiday season before November, in line with 42% last year. Among those starting early, 50% do so to spread out their holiday shopping budgets, while 37% say the prices and promotions are too good to pass up. Affordability is also top of mind for those waiting until November to start their shopping, with 46% of these shoppers saying they plan to wait until November and December because it is when they find the best prices and promotions.
While many consumers begin their holiday shopping early, many hold off on making the bulk of their purchases until later in the season, with sales and promotions continuing to play an important role throughout the holiday season. Nearly two-thirds (64%) of consumers say they are likely to wait until Thanksgiving weekend to do most of their shopping, in line with 63% last year.
“From getting an early start to waiting for major deals and promotions, consumers are choosing when to shop based on what works best for them,” Prosper Executive Vice President of Strategy Phil Rist said. “Even with a significant portion of shoppers beginning before November, many still plan to take advantage of deals and promotions during Thanksgiving weekend to make progress on their holiday shopping.”
Consumers continue to shop across a variety of destinations during the holidays. Online remains the leading shopping destination, with 53% planning to shop online. Other popular destinations include grocery stores (43%), discount stores (43%) and department stores (42%).
Gift cards remain at the top of consumers’ wish lists, with 47% saying they would like to receive them this holiday season, followed by clothing (44%), books and other media (25%) and personal care or beauty items (24%).
NRF recently released its 2026 holiday forecast, anticipating that holiday spending during November and December will grow 4.2% over 2025 totaling $1.013 trillion.
The survey asked 8,094 adult consumers about their holiday shopping plans. It was conducted Oct. 1 – 7 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.1 percentage points.
As the leading authority and voice for the retail industry, NRF provides data on consumer behavior and spending for key periods such as holidays throughout the year.
About NRF
The National Retail Federation passionately advocates for the people, brands, policies and ideas that help retail succeed. From its headquarters in Washington, D.C., NRF empowers the industry that powers the economy. Retail is the nation’s largest private-sector employer, contributing $5.3 trillion to annual GDP and supporting more than one in four U.S. jobs — 55 million working Americans. For over a century, NRF has been a voice for every retailer and every retail job, educating, inspiring and communicating the powerful impact retail has on local communities and global economies. nrf.com
About Prosper Insights & Analytics
Prosper Insights & Analytics helps organizations identify market change before it becomes visible in transactions, revenues, or economic reports. For more than 20 years, Prosper has measured the drivers of future consumer behavior—including intentions, expectations, confidence, emotions, and purchase plans—to generate predictive demand signals for financial services, retail, technology, and marketing organizations. www.ProsperInsights.com
